This indicator shows valuable information of the end of bull-run using a 111 Day moving average (DMA) and a 2x multiplier of 350 DMA.
Here we used an adapted version of this indicator from Tradingview coded by Ocnad (@ocnad) that show a buy signal too ( 350 DMA divided by 1.4).
Starting with 2017 Bull-Run we see that when 111 DMA (white line) crosses up 2x 350 DMA (red line), the sell signal flashes. See comment #1 bellow
In that bullrun, the sell signal came up few days before the 2017 ATH . Great, isn´t it?
After the sell signal, generally we have a huge price corretion or the beginning of the bear market (more on that later).
Going to 2013 bullrun, the situation is a bit different. See comment #2
We have a fake sell-signal on the middle of main bull-run (April 2013) followed by a huge price correction and then “real” sell signal in December 2013 just before the bear market.
So, how´s the situation today in April 2021?
Well, quite similar to April 2013, as the 111 DMA and 2x 350 DMA shows below. See comment #3
We are in the edge of that 111 DMA crossing above the 2x 350DMA multiplier.
If we experiment a fast price move to upwards in this month, that could trigger the indicator “fake” sell signal and a huge price correction could occur.
Adapting the price from 2013 to nowadays, we see the price possibly hitting 25k level again before getting much higher at 453k (!!!) level at end of 2021
Wow! Stunning! See comment #4
As we know that on a long-term basis Bitcoin volality is reducing more and more, we don´t expect such a huge market top, but it serves us as an indication that this bull run is behaving differently than 2017 bull-run .
“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.”